ERIPS December 1, 2021
Eritrean involvement in the war and its impact on the security of the region
Introduction
The Horn of Africa is riddled with deadly political conflicts, ethnic strife and poverty. This is often exacerbated by the undemocratic, sometimes brutal authoritarian rule that is all too common across the Horn. For much of the region, the foundations of democratic institutions necessary to sustain good governance have been eroded. In such circumstances, autocratic leaders take complete control over all decisions related to internal affairs and external relations of their respective countries, frequently sparking deadly conflicts with catastrophic outcomes.
The task of responsible and accountable political leaders should be to exert all necessary efforts to avoid being embroiled in conflicts, to safeguard the sanctity of the lives of their people, to develop their economies and to become responsible contributors to peace, security and stability of their region. In the absence of relevant and competent institutions and a reliable and viable leadership, it becomes incumbent upon responsible citizens and their organizations to take principled stands in pursuit of their strategic national interests and defense of the rights of their people.
We Eritreans are very cognizant of the ravage conflicts may cause to our country, and we know for a fact the true human, economic, social and political costs of wars. Yet, the autocratic regime of Isaias Afwerki has once again dragged our country into a Ethiopian civil war that has nothing to do with Eritrean national interests. In addition, the regime is mindlessly playing a destructive role in the Ethiopian conflict, which has already taken a heavy human toll on Eritreans and Ethiopians.
The Current Civil War in Ethiopia and Eritrea’s Role
The conflict between the Federal Government of Ethiopia and the government of the Tigray region has been simmering on political and constitutional issues since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power. This has led to the breakout of the Ethiopian civil war on November 3, 2020. This conflict has gotten out of control, bringing to the war theatre a variety of forces – domestic and foreign. Evidently, the Eritrean regime has been involved in the current Ethiopian crisis from day one and promptly sent divisions of Eritrean troops into the Tigray region in support of the Ethiopian federal forces and Amhara’s paramilitary forces. A UN report states that from the beginning of the armed conflict on November 3, 2020, through June 2021, there are “reasonable grounds” to believe that the Eritrean regime and other armed groups have committed atrocities that “may amount to crimes against humanity and war crimes, which require further investigations to ensure accountability”. Some other first-hand accounts and reliable news reports also show near-total destruction of Tigrayan industrial, commercial, health, cultural heritage and religious institutions. In addition, mass starvation is being used as a weapon of war to blockade the entire Tigray region and prevent humanitarian aid from reaching about 5 million people who desperately need food and medical assistance.
Amid the horrific war, the suffering endured by about 100,000 Eritrean refugees in Tigray seldom receives attention. Their right to international humanitarian protection was abused by the Eritrean regime with the collaboration of the Ethiopian government. Two of the refugee camps, Hitsatse and Shimelba, were raided and burned down and 20,000 refugees were commandeered back to Eritrea. No one knows their whereabouts or condition.
ERIPS Understanding of the Current Situation in the Horn of Africa (HOA)
The autocratic regime of Isaias Afwerki has used the Ethio-Eritrean border conflict of 1998 as a pretext to subject our people to brutal repression and keep them on a perpetual war footing. The Isaias regime, not only shattered the Eritrean dream of building a peaceful and prosperous nation, but also continued to leave a trail of heinous crimes behind, putting the destiny of our future generations in jeopardy. Since the Isaias regime has no other interest but to stay in power and dominate the region at all costs, Eritrean national interests do not match with that of the regime. Isaias’s involvement in the current Ethiopian civil war is, therefore, one of his many blunders and another example of his reckless behavior that is carried out despite the fact that it destroys the hopes and aspirations of our people and puts the future of our nation at a very high risk.
Eritreans are the primary victims of Isaias’s draconian policies, which subject many of the sons and daughters of our nation to live a life tantamount to slavery. As a continuation of the regime’s blunders, Eritrean youth are now thrown into the raging inferno of war in Ethiopia, which is taking a staggering toll in both civilian and non-civilian lives. Many of the Eritrean victims of the regime, mainly the Eritrean youth, are led to believe that the cause of all that is wrong in Eritrea, including being stuck in an indefinite national service, is the TPLF or the people of Tigray. This deceptively orchestrated brainwashing campaign has been running for more than 20 years to cover up the regime’s failures, protect its power and spread hate against the people of Tigray. As a result, we are witnessing many Eritreans following the regime’s orders and committing atrocities or making downright hateful comments against the people of Tigray. This darkest moment in our history should be overturned by educating the young about the regime’s tactics of manipulation, the consequences of hate, the concept of coexistence and true nationalism.
We believe the Isaias-Abiy alliance will continue to cause havoc in the Horn of Africa with a growing threat of ethnic conflagration unless a solution is found to stop the two rogue governments. We also believe that there is no military solution to resolve the intractable ethnic and political problems in Ethiopia. Unfortunately, the situation is expected to worsen, and for as long as Isaias is in power, it is highly likely that the Ethiopian civil war will continue to spread across borders. In fact, Eritrea is already a party to this armed conflict, and Isaias’s contributions to the war effort have already elevated the Ethiopian civil war to a regional scale.
As the prospect of regime change looms over Ethiopia, there are also reports about horrifying trends in the capital city Addis Ababa and other cities, where the Federal government of Ethiopia is still in control. Many news sources are reporting mass arrests of civilians, academicians and prominent personalities of Tigrayan origin. Their only crime appears to be their identity or ethnicity. Some channels are reporting that hundreds of the vulnerable Tigrayan civilians who have been rounded up are at risk of getting massacred by Abiy loyalists in revenge killings. Consequently, fears are growing as the possibility of genocide taking place is becoming more plausible.
The Possibility of the War Spreading into Eritrea
The Eritrean regime’s decision to become involved in the Ethiopian conflict, for all intents and purposes, was to eliminate the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) so that it will remain in power largely unchallenged by this regional rival. However, Eritrean involvement in this conflict will not continue for long with impunity. It is highly possible for the war to take an uglier turn for Eritrea. Understanding the nature of the Isaias regime and how it consistently mishandles resolution of political conflicts, we believe more ferocious armed conflict is awaiting us, possibly a continuation of the Ethiopian civil war that is going to be fought on Eritrean soil. This expectation has rightly caused anxiety among many Eritreans. As such, pro-justice Eritreans who are standing against the Eritrean regime should look for effective solutions that will bring peace, security and stability in the Horn of Africa, while minimizing the negative effects of the current conflict.
ERIPS believes there are effective and less costly solutions that can stop the armed conflict from spreading into Eritrea, minimize effects of the war, bring peace to the region and maintain peaceful coexistence with our neighbors. All these solutions certainly require making our first and foremost priority to be removing the regime currently ruling Eritrea with an iron fist. The autocratic regime in Eritrea is the principal cause of all our internal problems and the main instigator of all wars with our neighbors. With the regime still in power, we should not expect any of our predicaments to change or any of the cycle of conflicts we have with our neighbors to come to a peaceful resolution. It is primarily the responsibility of Eritreans to remove the tyrannical regime of Isaias Afeworki, and time is of the essence. Any delays in assuming this matter of our civic responsibility will make the already difficult situation worse. If we promptly remove the Isaias regime however, we will be well positioned to avoid the conflict with Ethiopia, save our young men and women from dying in a senseless war, replace tyranny with a democratic governance, solve our internal and external conflicts peacefully, repatriate and reintegrate our refugees, develop our economy and more. The power to change the course of Eritrean history is in our people’s hands; if and only if we use it.
ERIPS Stand on the Current Situation in the Region
The people of Eritrea are connected by blood, history and culture with their neighbors, including Tigray. Eritrea and Tigray have in addition developed a strong bond through joint efforts they launched to fight against oppression and gain their rights for self-determination. They are good neighbors who have every reason to be. This was demonstrated when the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea was opened briefly, and the peoples of the two countries hugged each other, wept together and happily celebrated the occasion. Unfortunately, the peoples of both countries also share a dark history of infighting, mainly caused by leaders who couldn’t listen closely to their people’s hearts. Once again, we are immersed in an unfortunate situation. The Isaias regime and his Ethiopian partners are committing widespread atrocities directed against Tigrayans and their government. We members of ERIPS vehemently denounce these heinous criminal acts committed by the Isaias regime and his Ethiopian partners against the people of Tigray. As part of our struggle for justice, we members of ERIPS and our pro-justice partners will work hard to hold those responsible accountable for their actions.
In addition, we:
- Stand in solidarity with the just struggle of Tigrayans which is also the struggle of Eritreans;
- Support Tigray’s quest for self-determination;
- Condemn, in the strongest terms possible, and distance ourselves from the war being waged and crimes being committed by Abiy and his Amhara and Eritrean allies against the people of Tigray;
- Vow to work hard to bring an end to the criminal reign of the Isaias government and for its replacement by a government that empowers the Eritrean people and represents their best interests so that Eritreans will live in peace with themselves and their neighbors;
- Will seek a relationship with our Tigrayan counterparts to facilitate reconciliation, peace, justice, security, stability and development in our region;
- Will advance common interests and causes of the two peoples and the wider Horn of Africa region;
- Call upon our young men and women who are in the military to distance themselves from the Isaias regime and become agents of change;
- Will work to understand and help heal the physical, psychological and emotional traumas of all victims;
- Appeal to and urge all fair-minded Ethiopians to strongly condemn the war waged on the people of Tigray and work hard for peace, justice and reconciliation. We also appeal to Ethiopian leaders and intellectuals to realize that actions of the Eritrean regime should not be attached to the Eritrean people , and
- Recognize many other Ethiopian ethnic groups are also victims of the megalomaniac ambitions of Abiy and Isaias.
Recommended Actions for Eritreans
- All Eritreans must denounce hateful acts, speech and narratives in clear and unambiguous terms.
- All Eritreans must acknowledge the suffering of the people of Tigray, Eritreans and other Ethiopians and empathize with all victims of war.
- All Eritreans must denounce the Isaias regime’s involvement in the Ethiopian internal affairs, abuses of Eritrean refugees and refusal to abide by international laws.
- All Eritreans must encourage their families and friends to distance themselves from the Isaias regime.
- All Eritreans must avoid PFDJ propaganda and seek to understand the current situation clearly.
- All Eritreans must seek a win-win situation with our neighbors without compromising our national interests.
- All Eritreans must understand there is no military solution to the conflict and seek peace, harmony and peaceful coexistence with our neighbors.
- All Eritreans must seek justice and actively participate in all activities organized by pro-justice Eritreans.
- All Eritreans must encourage our troops to end their own servitude, disobey orders that violate human rights and stand on the side of their people.
- All Eritreans must narrow their differences, build trust and work together amicably to remove the brutal dictator from power and build a peaceful, equal, prosperous and just nation.